Bitfinex Bitcoin longs hit 6-month high — Will BTC price follow?

Bullish Bitcoin (BTC) positions using leverage on the Bitfinex exchange surged to their highest level in nearly six months, reaching 80,333 BTC on March 20—equivalent to $6.92 billion. The 27.5% increase in Bitcoin margin longs since Feb. 20 has fueled speculation that the 12.5% BTC price gain from the $76,700 low on March 11 is driven by leverage and may not be sustainable.

However, Bitcoin’s price does not always move in tandem with bullish leveraged positions on Bitfinex. For example, in the three weeks ending July 12, 2024, large investors added 13,620 BTC in margin longs, yet Bitcoin’s price fell from $65,500 to $58,000. Similarly, a two-week-long increase of 8,990 BTC in margin longs took place leading into Sept. 11, 2024, and this coincided with a price decline from $60,000.

Bitcoin margin traders are highly profitable but also risk-tolerant

In the long term, these savvy investors have timed the market well, as Bitcoin’s price eventually surpassed $88,000 in November 2024, while margin long positions were reduced by 30% by year-end. Essentially, these traders are highly profitable but exhibit a much higher risk tolerance and patience than the average investor. Therefore, an increase in leverage demand does not necessarily translate into upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

Additionally, the cost of borrowing Bitcoin remains relatively low, creating opportunities for market-neutral arbitrage as traders capitalize on cheap interest rates. Currently, borrowing BTC for 60 days on Bitfinex carries an annualized cost of 3.14%, while the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual futures stands at 4.5%. In theory, traders can exploit this spread through ‘cash and carry’ arbitrage, profiting without direct exposure to price fluctuations.

Even if one assumes that most of the $1.48 billion in margin longs are not arbitrage trades—meaning these large investors are genuinely betting on Bitcoin’s price appreciation—other exchanges may have offset part of this move. For instance, demand for Bitcoin margin longs has declined significantly on OKX over the same 30-day period.

The Bitcoin long-to-short margin ratio on OKX currently shows longs outweighing shorts by a factor of 15, the lowest level in over three months. Historically, excessive confidence has driven this ratio above 40, most recently in late February when Bitcoin’s price surged past $105,000. Conversely, a ratio below 5 typically signals a strong bearish sentiment.

Bitcoin options price balances risks of upside and downside fluctuations in BTC price

To rule out external factors limited to margin markets, one should also analyze Bitcoin options. If traders anticipate a correction, demand for put (sell) options will rise, pushing the 25% delta skew above 6%. Conversely, during bullish periods, this metric typically falls below -6%.

Between March 10 and March 18, the Bitcoin options market showed signs of bearish sentiment but has since shifted to a neutral stance. This suggests that whales and market makers are pricing similar risks for both upward and downward price movements. Given the margin market trends on OKX and the current pricing of BTC options, a Bitcoin bull run is far from a consensus expectation.

Bitcoin’s lack of bullish momentum can partly be attributed to the higher inflation outlook and weaker economic growth projections presented by the US Federal Reserve on March 19. Concerns over a potential recession, exacerbated by a global tariff war, have made investors more risk-averse. As a result, even though whales are increasing their exposure through Bitcoin margin longs, overall market sentiment remains subdued.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.