Bitcoin price action mirrors 2019 ‘Xi pump,’ are new BTC lows incoming?

Bitcoin’s weekly chart was on track to close below $90,000 for the first time since November 2024, but a late surge pushed prices higher following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a crypto strategic reserve.

Despite February’s monthly candle closing at $84,299, BTC’s (BTC) weekly close formed a doji candle, closing at $94,222. With prices retesting the $95,000 overhead resistance, one analyst remained cautious about a repeat of 2019’s “Xi pump.”

Will Trump-pump follow the Xi-pump path?

In 2019, during a prolonged bearish trading period that stretched from June to October, Bitcoin’s market sentiment was low. However, on Oct. 25, 2019, China’s President XI Jinping’s announcement supporting blockchain technology triggered a significant price rise.

However, in subsequent days, China imposed a series of crackdowns on crypto assets and activities like mining, leading to new lows within 30 days.

Cold Blooded Shiller, an anonymous crypto analyst, drew similarities between the ‘Xi-pump’ and the current Trump pump, suggesting that sentiment rallies can often fizzle out due to lack of strength, and the market quickly adjusts itself to the prior trend.

As illustrated in the chart, the similarities between both periods followed similar retests of prior support ranges. In the first case below $10,000 in 2019 and below $95,000 in 2025, and the asset formed new lows 30 days later. The analyst added that in 2019, traders quickly acknowledged the pump as a “short squeeze and managed to get some very good entries.”

Likewise, Magus, a crypto trader, mentioned that bulls needed to prove themselves this week and carry out re-acceptance of the value area high (VAH) at $103,000 and value area low (VAL) at $91,000.

The VAH and VAL define a range where the majority of trading volume occurred during a selected time period on a chart, in this case, since November 2024. However, Magus also remained cautious of the Xi pump, stating,

“This is a textbook swing setup for me normally but if you’ve been around long enough you remember the Xi pump My gut tells me this move was exaggerated because of sentiment.”

Related: Trump’s crypto reserve plan faces Congress vote, may limit rally

Bitcoin remains in distribution, not accumulation

Data from Glassnode suggested that despite BTC’s rally, the short-term holders’ (STH) cost basis dropped below 1 after initially moving above $92,700. Bitcoin’s current price is below $92,700, which implies that STHs remained in a “fragile position” with profitability current at breakeven.

Additionally, the data analytics platform also stated that Bitcoin’s accumulation trend score remained under 0.5 for 58 consecutive days, underling a long period of net distribution.

A distribution period is defined as a phase of profit-taking by investors, which is often in line with market corrections. Glassnode added,

“Accumulation and distribution phases have alternated within a 57-65 day window on average. With the latest read at 0.9, the Trend Score indicates large entities are still in a net distribution regime, with no confirmed transition to accumulation yet.”

Related: Biggest CME gap ever at $85K: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.